Thailand Opening Up

Future Park at Rangsit

The pandemic forced major malls to be closed for the past two months. A reopening was allowed yesterday. Hence wifey and I to support Thai economy, went out yesterday to jalan jalan and jiak Korean BBQ at Future Park, Rangsit. 

Mask on, hand washed and off we go!

Sometimes Thai people can be quite creative, they spray paint on the escalators to make sure people have sufficient social distance.

White circle spray paint to keep 1 meter distance

Queue up to go inside the mall

They implemented the QR code registration for entering the mall and entering shops. We are also required to sign out when we leave the shop or leave the mall. Actually quite fast, but wifey say too many people. Wifey don't angry la, we go jiak BBQ.

Pork Shoulder meat & Spicy Tofu

Three layer pork (Fat Die Me)

Total damage 416 Thai baht (18.5 SGD)

Drink some Starbuck

Startbuck's staff tell me must sit alone... Very sad. 

Reference from Bangkok Post.

Some shop feel that customer might feel too lonely and placed their Mascot to accompany them to eat. So cute.

Let's hope this opening up of businesses does not cause a huge surge in new cases. No choice, need some balancing between fighting the pandemic and survival.

Weekly Update

New Changes

* From daily update change to weekly update or as and when I feel that I have something interesting to share.

* Updated my stock allocation to include US & SET as of 16th May.

US Market

Just started my first investment in US market last night. It is exciting as the change in share price can be quite drastic within seconds.

Ring Energy Inc (REI.NYSE)

Jin huat! 

In the green for the first time in FY2019 then came the pandemic. 

1) Hedged from now till December 2021, means they are not required to deliver a single drop of oil to get paid. Note, there is a difference in their hedged price in FY2020 & FY2021. The later is 5-10 USD lesser.

Reference from REI 1st Qtr Presentation Slide, page 19

2) Delaware sale was previously announced back in April that they entered into a PSA. Current ongoing for due diligence from the buyer side. Deal should go through within June.

3) Started shutting down wells in April and 100% shut down all well production on 23rd April.

See the Transcript for Q1 REI earn calls here.

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM.NYSE)

Bought it the first thing when market open when I see silver price at 16.8 USD per ounce.

 

It is one of the few silver mining company in the green and only one below NAV. 

(Important thing is price/NAV below 1, I am that cheap)

As of now, its price per NAV is already above 1. 

Disclaimer: Shared opinion on this blog is not to be treated as investment advice to the readers. Please do your own due diligence and consider your financial goals before investing.

Gold/Silver Ratio

Another busy day at work. Market sentiment seems to be lousy today.

I think it is a good day to promote the shiny side to people on a red day. the importance of precious metal.

1) With the current gold/silver ratio at 109.67, silver is a steal at its current price provided gold stays above 1700 USD per ounce.

Historically the gold/silver ratio is at 60 for the past 20 years and usually at its high when above 80.

Reference from Seekingalpha

2) Supply & demand for silver has always been healthy when compared to gold. At least 80% of the dug up silver are used up yearly either for industrial use, jewellery or silverware. You may read the details here.

Reference from GlobalNewswire

3) Using common sense, historical high for gold is 1869.90 USD per ounce while historical high for silver is 48.58 USD per ounce. The odds for gold to flip from its current price of 1700.71 USD per ounce to 3400 USD is not unlikely, but that is just a 1 bagger. Silver on the other hand when spike up can hit at least a 3 to 10 bagger depending on the amount of frenzy going on during the spike.

Trade of the Day

Biolidics (8YY.SI)

Sold Clearbridge (1H3.SI) & bought last Friday at 0.46, sold in the morning at 0.475. It might spike further but I like to pick low bearing fruit, sell first talk later.

Luckily I sold, now trading back at 0.46.

IX Biopharma (42C.SI)

Bought back my weed at 0.28. Hand itchy, better not follow my trade, these are all for speculation unless you are buying for long term.

Disclaimer: Shared opinion on this blog is not to be treated as investment advice to the readers. Please do your own due diligence and consider your financial goals before investing.

Thai Wedding

Another busy day at work while wifey is at home, sabai sabai. It is holiday for government sector today, good for her.

Raining again, hence it is time for another post.

Thailand is a bit like Chinese, an engagement is required. A bit like a session for 聘礼 (betrothal gift). Usually attended by friends and family, I did not invite anyone and went one man show as I am required to have the engagement done before I leave Thailand for my annual leave in Singapore.

It will be followed by the actual wedding and wedding dinner. Wifey and I was very lucky to have our ROM on 14th Feb 2020 before the lockdown in Singapore. (Now I have one less day to celebrate each year.) Back then as the coronavirus has already started causing fear in people, we delayed our wedding dinner in Singapore and had dinner only with our parents. We then had dinner with our close Thai relatives at Icon Siam, Bangkok. Note that there is free shuttle boat if you would like to visit when everything is back to normal. Similar to Marina Sands, water fountain show is available in the evening.

All in all I think I spent way below 300k baht, equivalent to 13.2k SGD. Cannot recall the total amount, as I am not that particular after spending the money. Let bygones be bygones.

Suit tailored at Pinky Tailor (Bangkok) for around 16500 baht 

Wedding Bouquet from Plaza Singapura

Simple Dinner in Singapore

View from Millennium Hilton, Bangkok

One Night Stay at Millennium Hilton as it is located right next to Icon Siam

In any case it is still way cheaper than her friend's wedding in Korat. Nakhon Ratchasima aka Korat is the largest province in Thailand and is one of the four major cities of Isan.

Glad wifey did not hate me for not being able to give her a grand wedding. Will be spending that money on our honeymoon to British though, when the pandemic is over.

People got stage hor

People got special place for blessings from relative & friends

Space filler, do not mind me

The restaurant is huge

Temple, everywhere we go, we visit temple. Same goes for Myanmar.

Next time show you all a door 5 times this size that I saw in Myanmar

Temple with Statues for Heroes of Korat

Thai Lifestyle

Some Investing Note user comment that they are more interested in my Thai lifestyle rather than my stock pick.

Win liao lor.

Actually I wrote before lor. You can find it here where I talked about my budget in Thailand.

My current monthly budget is 17000 Thai baht, which is equivalent to SGD $750.03.

Rental

I am currently staying 1.5 hours away from Bangkok. 

Type: One room condominium

Size: 344 sqft

A bedroom (with living room)

A small kitchen

A toilet

A small balcony

All furniture included

Other room amenities includes:

A 32" flat screen television 

An air conditioner

A refrigerator

A water heater,

A electric cooking stove

7000 baht per month equivalent to SGD $308.84 + 1000 baht utility (wifey pays utility)

Meals

Breakfast from 7 Eleven, usually coffee with bread or pastry around 70 baht equivalent to SGD $3.09.

(7 day x 4 weeks x 3.09 = 86.52)

My lunch will be around 40 baht equivalent to SGD $1.76.

(6 day x 4 weeks x 1.76 = 42.24)

Dinner either prepare by wifey or I will buy home if she is tired or when we are out of ingredients.

Grocery 

Wifey & I tend to go for shopping twice a week at least which contributes to her daily breakfast, lunch & dinner.

We will either shop at Tesco or local market.

I cannot really add up my monthly dinner & grocery cost, but it will all add up to below my budget. 

How is that possible? Never burst budget you might ask. Simple answer, I only have 17000 baht per month in my bank account. 

It is impossible to go beyond the budget when I do not have the extra money for it. 

In the event that I need extra, I will turn to my "angry" wifey, usually for our grocery during the last week. =3

Today at Wholesale Market

Guess how much all these costed?

My Lunch & Dinner : Green Curry

Disclaimer: Shared opinion on this blog is not to be treated as investment advice to the readers. Please do your own due diligence and consider your financial goals before investing.

Investing Ideas

Pawnbrokers

With news of record breaking unemployment rate and people borrowing money in Singapore at 4% interest per month, pawnbrokers will thrive as it fills the need for short-term loans.

MoneyMax Fin (5WJ.SI) vs Maxi-Cash Fin (5UF.SI)

1) EPS 0.24 vs 0.14

2) Price per NAV 0.664 vs 0.96

3) PE 6.164 vs 8.932

Conclusion, I bought MoneyMax Fin (5WJ.SI) as I like its number. Although its dividend is 3.79% less than Maxi-Cash Fin (5UF.SI), I think it has more growth potential. In addition, it allows people to do eRenewal for their pawned items. Awesome feature, very huat!

Recruitment Agency

During recession, companies usually will require more temporary workers to replace their retrenched permanent staff.

Hence my interest for HRnetGroup (CHZ.SI), but I hate its share buybacks at level above 1 for price per NAV. To me, that is artificially boosting its share price and destroying shareholder valve. Some IN user might call me too dumb to understand share buybacks. Yes, I am. Hence I am still looking at it from a far, drooling.

I will stop here for today. It is Sunday, gonna go out with wifey to do some shopping.

Disclaimer: Shared opinion on this blog is not to be treated as investment advice to the readers. Please do your own due diligence and consider your financial goals before investing.

Random Thoughts

Forming a perspective

How do I choose what to invest in? It has been a fruitful two months since April, which possibly is the case for most people as market recovers from the dip.

Stock holding as shown on my blog here,

China Everbright (U9E.SI)
First bought on 6th June 2019 at 0.355.
Added twice on 10th & 12th Mar 2020 at 0.26-7.
Added again on 23rd Apr 2020 at 0.21

Currently my biggest holding.
1) It is really cheap and I do not mind getting an offer for buyout (just no low ball offers).
2) China go green by implementing better regulations and environment tax to help fund its environmental policies over the years. Its standard will just go higher and higher.
3) Even under pandemic, similar to electricity, waste water treatment is still a must.
4) Dividend 6%
5) Price per NAV 0.413
6) PE 4.362

YZJ Shipbldg SGG (BS6.SI)
Ms Yang, traded since Aug 2019 swinging up and down. Recently bought again after taking profit from FSL Trust (D8DU.SI) as it declared dividend.

Second biggest holding.
1) Just listening to the Q&A session from FSL Trust (D8DU.SI)'s AGM, gave me huge confidence in Ms Yang.
2) Retrofitting by adding scrubber to 'capture' sulfur to meet IMO 2020 regulation. With an estimate of only 1% of vessels been retrofitted while the rest sat the fence waiting to see its effectiveness, the market potential is huge.
3) Non-stop new deals, it will just keep on coming. However we cannot neglect the possible drop in profit margin.
4) Dividend 4.545%
5) Price per NAV 0.612
6) PE 6.471

My rules of thumb for Ms Yang, anything below $1 is free money.

Yanlord Land (Z25.SI)
Bought since 2nd Jan 2020, being holding since.

Thrid biggest holding.
1) Price per cash at hand 1.018 (Free business)
2) Dividend 6.476%
3) Price per NAV 0.372
4) PE 3.135

Closing comment
I am a cheapo. Hence for me to buy a company for long term, it must have the following attribute:
1) Low PE
2) Price per NAV must be below 1 (Anything above 1, I buy solely for speculation)
3) Must have dividend. I am stupid, I do not know how to see whether the financial report is real or fake. Dividend is a good indicator from my POV.

Disclaimer: Shared opinion on this blog is not to be treated as investment advice to the readers. Please do your own due diligence and consider your financial goals before investing.

Perspective Matters

How people invest may vary in their personalities, motivations and attributions for their successes and failures when investing - all of which may affect how and why they invest. One thing does not change though, everyone is here to make money, even when they start it off with losing money.

Case 1: A Chinese retail company, Gome Retail (国美百货, HKG:0493), back in the days open retail shop across China selling various kind of goods and is especially popular with selling cheap cosmetics. It is so cheap that hardly any competitors can beat their price. This company did not focus its mind on profit from the sale, at some point they are selling enough to breakeven - to pay for their sales employees and has no problem selling the rest of the goods at cost price. Amazing is it not? The reason behind this is that their cost of goods is to be paid three to six months after they have received the goods. Their business model is similar to YZJ Shipbldg SGD (BS6.SI) where they use their cash to loan to people. Perfect example of a company making full use of its cashflow. Anyway, you will not see this retailer in China anymore as the payment period now changed majority to upfront payment. It has since transformed itself into a web based e-commerce company.

Case 2: Price war in Indian telecom industry. Similar to price war between Grab & Uber, Indian telecom industry has been experiencing price war until 2019 in order to capture market shares. Both have given us a very clear idea how the race to the bottom will be for everyone. Hint, it is not pretty. Then let's think of the race between countries to negative interest rate. I really felt blessed to be living in South East Asia instead of the western countries.

How does it relate to today's world? With the pandemic disrupting our life, it will be common for companies to be in the red for quarters to come. While everyone is betting on Biotech companies, including me, there is a limit to how high the price of these companies can go.

Example: Medtech (546.SI) at 15x net profit, I believe this could last for another quarter but could the result disappoint us? Possible, just look at companies worldwide ramping up their production capacity. It is another battlefield all together.

Hence, maybe its time we take a look at companies that ultimately survives through this crisis and plan a right entry price and go long term.

Trade of the Day

Its Friday and the market is green. Awesome timing for me to sell into strength.

YZJ Shipbldg SGD (BS6.SI)
Currently queuing at 0.995 to sell, wish me luck. I will then trade it as usual. I love to buy sell companies that I like. If I get struck, I will just hold.

Clearbridge (1H3.SI)
Sold Mectech (546.SI) and bought Clearbridge. Let's see how thing goes.

Disclaimer: Shared opinion on this blog is not to be treated as investment advice to the readers. Please do your own due diligence and consider your financial goals before investing.

Starting Over

Starting From Clean State

Saw this post today on Investing Note: "If you have $1000 start from clean state, with enough cash float for rainy days, how would you invest given this impending/start of recession?".

It is an interesting question if the starting amount is at least $10,000 instead of $1000. With enough cash float for rainy days and I really want to invest when I only have $1000 at hand, I will go for penny stocks. It is risky but rewarding if done right. After all, we need money to earn money. $1000 is too small to start with given the commission between $10 to $30 per trade.

CFD or forex could be another option but it is not within my circle of competence. Hence, I am not in the position to comment. For me, I would have bought MDR (A27.SI) at 0.001 per share. In fact I am currently holding a million share at 0.001 during the panic sell when DOW drop by 1000 point per day. Today, there is not enough sell volume for anyone to buy at 0.001 unless you work for the banks and every trade only cost you $1.

Here is my thought process:

1) Management converted their warrant into shares - showing confident to the company's future.

Taken from annual report (page 56)

From annual report, chairman statement (page 8):  The Company successfully raised $28.41m from the exercise of Tranche 2 Warrants, of which my contribution (together with my spouse) was $17.50m (i.e. almost 61% of the Tranche 2 Warrants proceeds raised). Despite the economic uncertainties, 52% of the Tranche 2 Warrants were exercised by the warrantholders. Several Directors (including myself, Zhang Yanmin, Mark Leong and Ian Oei) subscribed for the entitlement of their Tranche 2 Warrants in full. Directors and Group employees, in aggregate, have invested $17.80m for the exercise of Tranche 2 Warrants. To recap, mDR has raised approximately $95m to-date from its Rights cum Warrants issue (Rights, Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 Warrants), of which my contribution (together with my spouse) was $43.51m, our CEO Frankie Ong’s contribution was $6.60m and cumulatively that of all Directors and staff was $51.02m. I believe the investments by our Directors and staff is tangible evidence that we have confidence in our business and more importantly this increases alignment of interest with all shareholders.

2) Share buybacks during the huge sell volume at 0.001 - again showing confident to the company's future.

Taken from SGX buyback announcement on 28th Feb 2020

3) Read the annual report and you will laugh like me - it is becoming more and more like a hedge fund. (This really show how past experience affect people's action into the future. I think Mr Edward Lee wants to become Singapore's Warren Buffett)

4) NAV is around 0.0017, hence it is currently at 41.2% discount.

Worse case scenario - I lose $1000.

Average case scenario - Price stays at 0.001 for a prolong period of time.

Best case scenario - My TP is 0.005 hence equivalent to $5000 and a profit of $3950 ($50 for commission)

My two cents.

No Trade Day

Singapore market is closed. Was thinking I would trade Thailand market today. However, it seems to be down. Too red for me to do anything, not gonna sell.

Usually I will deduct my expense from my monthly allowance invest the rest while keeping 10000 Baht as emergency fund.

Currently I am holding to only two counters on SET:

ROJNA
Rojana Industrial Park Public Company
A 50/50 joint venture between Thailand & Japan back in the days. Due to it nature as a joint venture, it is required to pay out 50% of its earnings every year as dividend. Currently it is trading at 0.6 Price / NAV and a 12% Yield. I see the yearly report and drool, sold last month for a profit and bought back again earlier this month.

TRUE
True Corporation Public Company Limited
As we know it, one of the three biggest telecom service company in Thailand. So please try to choose True when you are in Thailand. Advertisement aside, I bought TRUE because its price came down 50% from its previous height and I am very happy with their customer service whenever I am at their retailer shop.

Disclaimer: Shared opinion on this blog is not to be treated as investment advice to the readers. Please do your own due diligence and consider your financial goals before investing.

Vesak Day

Holiday

Today is actually Thailand's Vesak day, while Singapore's Vesak day is tomorrow. Interesting, I wonder why the difference in date. Should it not be the same internationally?

Good for me la, today trade Singapore market, tomorrow trade Thailand market. Perfect!

Be Different

While it is a holiday, I am currently at work. Like I said, I work everyday. Inspired by the book, The Road Less Travelled, I chose a occupation that is out of most people's comfort zone. 

Reference: https://www.amazon.com/Road-Less-Traveled-Timeless-Traditional/dp/0743243153

Taking some spare time to talk about why I chose my current occupation. Most people might want to work comfortably in an office, near home, etc. However, what people might not know for a matter of fact is, undesired jobs are well paid for. Why choose an 8 to 5 job and end up working for the rest of your life when you are an average joe? Although with a degree, I considered myself an average joe.

At least 1 out of every three person you see on the street in Singapore has a degree, if not higher. It is not a big deal and I do not consider myself smarter than most people. I know my edge and I know my weakness. I love hands-on while I hate to deal with people relationship. Short term pain for long term gain, similar to a lockdown. It is not an easy decision, but I want to eventually live a life where I am doing what I really wanted to do - to help others reach the dream of their life.

Trade of the Day

Seroja Inv (IW5.SI)

Bought it yesterday at 0.073 and sold immediately this morning at 0.074 because I wanna jump back into the Medtech (546.SI). Earned some breakfast, lunch & dinner money from just one pip. Amazing because cost of living in Thailand is just that cheap.

Medtech (546.SI)

Maybe I jumped in with too much excitement. But hey, it's 15x net profit, it is not worth missing. It ponders me whether I should jump back into Clearbridge (1H3.SI)  at current price level.

Disclaimer: Shared opinion on this blog is not to be treated as investment advice to the readers. Please do your own due diligence and consider your financial goals before investing.

Budget & Covid-19

Budgeting

Due to my job nature, I tend to relocate every one to two years. Hence my budget changes depending on the region I am in. Similar to the $5 per day budget, I like to challenge myself for the first three months at my new location before having a fixed amount per month for the rest of my stay.

My current budget stays at 17000 baht per month.

7000 baht on rental (My wife pays the utilities)

6000 baht for grocery and take away (Increased in spending on take away as we are not allowed to eat in restaurant)

4000 baht for my breakfast and lunch at work

Usually I will have a budget for visiting my love's grandma and doing some shopping in Bangkok but due to Covid-19, it has been changed to increase in spending for take away. 

Covid-19 & Changes in Lifestyle

Currently in Thailand, life goes on as usual for me, working almost everyday except holiday.

We are not allowed to leave house after 10pm till 5am, not allowed to eat at the restaurant (I heard the rules will change this month), must at all time wear a mask while outside.

I am not very sure why there is so little community infection as compare to Singapore, but I am happy that it stayed this way other than some exceptional increase in figures from time to time.

Trade of the Day

1) FSL Trust (D8DU.SI)

First bought this counter on 29th Apr 47200 shares at 0.061.

Took notice yesterday that it is announcing its first quarter after trading hours.

Sold IX Biopharma (42C.SI) at 0.275 and bought FSL Trust around 0.063-4. Hated myself for it as it rose to 0.305 in the afternoon.

Was happy to see the announcement in the evening that it is distributing another US 0.15cents. Sold all at 0.085 and bought YZJ Shipbldg SGD (BS6.SI). Currently trading FSL Trust by buying and selling 1 to 2 pips while it swing up and down.

2) Seroja Inv (IW5.SI)

Again, saw the announcement last evening on circular clearance for proposed disposal, long pending since last year. I am so excited with FSL Trust that I totally forgotten about this counter. 

Went up to day high of 0.08, current at 0.071. Will continue to monitor.

Disclaimer: Shared opinion on this blog is not to be treated as investment advice to the readers. Please do your own due diligence and consider your financial goals before investing.

Monthly Update

Portfolio Investing

I am Singapore number one portfolio investing fan (copy from Mr Brown).

While being a fan of portfolio investing, I never quite set up the portfolio until the start of 2020. Therefore I am currently quite far away from my target allocation.

As of 4th May 2020, below is my planned vs actual allocation.

Cash

Currently at 7.5 % as I am lazy, hence current month's salary has already accounted in the calculation.

With global interest rate close to zero or even negative for some countries, usually I will invest the moment I receives my salary.

Bond

Currently at 0.7%.

Previously at 12%, redeemed from SSB and invested all in Clearbridge. Was lucky to get out with decent return before it crashed.

I guess it will be long after the current pandemic before I invest again in bond.

Shares

Currently at 45.6%.

Was in a shopping spree for the past 2 months. Currently holding 11 counters in SGX and 1 counter in SET.

I am currently exploring the option to invest in the US market. I told my broker to call me when her job scope changed to hitting flies rather than picking up phone calls.

Precious Metal

Currently at 8.9%.

Was at a comfortable 10% in March, guess I will  just have to buy more. I love precious metal, especially when you know it will rise before everything is over.
Citibank recently given the price target of US$3000 per ounce. Let's hope the other banks do not catch up with the forecast that fast.

Fixed Deposit

Currently at 37.2%.

I like to do fixed deposit, even if it is with a low interest rate. It gives us a peace of mind and a good night sleep. Losing sleep over investment and lack of emergency fund is not my way of life.

ETF

Zero percent. Finally I have the chance to add and buy some ETF. I trade that often that I need ETF to limit my downside.

I will most likely be seeking to buy ETF for S&P 500. To me, it is not the right time yet, let's hope I board the boat on time before it leaves.

Saving Plan

I was introduced late last year to resale saving plan by my friend Samuel. Hence it became my another option to limit my downside with a higher return than fixed deposit.

I hate to waste my money that is supposed to save and paid it for commission, but with resale saving plan it solves my problem.

You can read more about resale saving plan by click the link here.

You may also call my friend Samuel at 9653 6420 for more information.

Disclaimer: Shared opinion on this blog is not to be treated as investment advice to the readers. Please do your own due diligence and consider your financial goals before investing.

A Ten Year Plan

Purpose

To record my journey towards financial freedom within a ten year timeframe.

Perspective of life

Just turned 30 this year, the past 30 years went by in a breeze. Life is short, to spend our whole life chasing after money is not my ideal way of life. My plan is to be financially free by age 40, spend more time with my family members and to continue contribute to society by either joining or setting up a charity organisation.

My life goal is to be happy and in turn spread happiness to others.